Excess deaths and the elephant in the room - Part 1
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In Europe, in the summer of 2021, there was a definite excess mortality for all except the youngest age groups - outside of the normal range according to Euromomo.eu. The "normal range" is indicated by the grey band. At that time, the pandemic was all but gone.
Could that have to do with the new Covid19 vaccines? If not, what else? Governments came come up with all kinds of unfounded explanations. The Scottish government's explanation attempts are criticized here.
Unexplained excess mortality in 2021 was noticed not only in Europe but in many countries worldwide, and discussed in a number of reports. See for example this report on New Zealand's unexplained excess deaths, also discussed on YouTube. New Zealand is in the special situation that it suffered little from Covid so that blaming Covid doesn't work. Other, similar video discussions with "vaccine questions" are here and here. It appears that the risk from Covid vaccination is considerable for the elderly.
Also in the USA, young people died much more than usual, even during the summer:
Questions were also asked about the unexplained excess mortality since September 2021 in political circles in Germany, including discussion of the striking observation that over the period from week 36 to 40, German states with higher Covid vaccination levels had a higher total mortality. It should be noted that according to the same analysts, by including week 41 (with more Covid deaths) the total mortality became roughly equal between states with high and with low vaccination levels.
Even Pfizer and Moderna could not demonstrate an overall short time benefit from vaccination with their vaccines during the Covid pandemic, as during their clinical trials slightly more vaccinated than unvaccinated people died from any cause (in equally sized groups): with Pfizer, 15 vaccinated vs 14 placebo died according to their "Adverse Events" section, while with Moderna, 17 vaccinated vs. 16 placebo died according to their Table S19. In other words, the results did not demonstrate that their vaccines save more lives than they take.
His graphs above show striking correlations, almost "hand-in-glove", between first doses (top, circle), second doses (centre, circle) and boosters (bottom). Only the effect of boosters is not telling as they were given simultaneously with the Delta wave; how much is due to Covid and how much due to boosters cannot be estimated from that graph. A curious detail: the peak of the death curve precedes the peak of the booster curve. Prof. Kuhbandtner shows in his report that this can be an optical illusion, if those who were vaccinated first (the elderly) have a higher mortality than those who were vaccinated later.
Kuhbandtner also found that even individual German states show such strong correlations, at different times.
Consequently, the correlations are strong both in time and in place: mortality increased both when and where Covid19 vaccinations were given. That is strong evidence of a causal relationship. In principle, a common cause could provide a possible alternative explanation - but no reasonable possible common cause has been proposed that causes deaths and vaccinations to increase and decrease in lock step, when and where people are vaccinated.
A striking exception that I found, at first sight, is Switzerland. During most of 2021, mortality after the winter Covid wave looked quite normal and the strong excess mortality towards the end of the year is only ascribed to Covid19 in the official discussion.
However, there is reason for doubt as the number of excess deaths is far higher than the number of reported deaths with Covid, and a first analysis indicates also a strong correlation with booster injections, with follow-up here. Note that just as in Germany a peak in deaths occured before the peak in total vaccinations; also here the later vaccinations were given to younger people.
I'm now analyzing this in more detail; to be discussed in Part 2.
Comments, corrections and suggestions are welcome!
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