Electoral fraud in the US 2020 presidential elections

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Here is planned a short overview of alleged fraud as well as some evidence.

With some links planned to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempts_to_overturn_the_2020_United_States_presidential_election

Draft of InfoCheckers input here below, to enhance with additions from the last blog post; also still to add text from the first blog post : Blog:US_2020_elections:_widespread_fraud%3F


Statistical analysis

Some statistical irregularities were discussed at Metabunk.org. A number of huge, unexplained errors were made in the vote counts by Edison Research, such as votes "switching" as well as Trump loosing votes, as shown on live TV (see here for a plausible explanation). In the discussion there's also a graph of Biden vs Trump over time, and a useful video explaining Benford's law.

That brings us to an interesting article using Benford's law by Savva Shanaev, a PhD candidate in Finance, co-written with his supervisor. They account for criticisms such as the limited usefulness of first digit Benford's law in the 2020 US elections and analyze also the second digit, which according to Prof. Mebane should be "taken seriously" as a statistical test for election fraud, see also his articles on Russia here, USA here and Iran here.
Savva Shanaev and colleagues present their results based on county level vote results by means of p-values: the smaller the p-value, the greater the deviation from what is normal or expected. p-values below 0.1 generally give reason to suspect fraud in the case of elections. They observed "statistical significant irregularities" "for Democratic votes in key battleground states", while "no anomalies are detected for any of the tests in states won by the Republican candidate". They also found in swing states an extreme difference in Democratic votes compared with past elections.

For 14 swing states grouped together, the two digits Bensford's tests had a p-value of 0.98 for Republican votes but 0.06 for Democratic votes. Thus votes for the Democratic Party look abnormal. In a more detailed analysis of swing states they only tested the first digit Benford's law. For 9 swing states grouped together they found a Republican vote p-value of 0.850 and in contrast, a Democratic vote p-value of 0.017. Even swing states won by Democrats and those won by Republicans gave quite different results: only in the group of swing states in which the democrats won, had the democratic vote a clearly abnormal distribution. And so, their results with both first and second digits Benford's law do suggest that something abnormal happened in swing states; however that analysis needs more elaboration, it's an "Ansatz".

Yet another Benford's law analysis found only a significant deviation for the Biden Pensylvania mail-in vote; that supports the Pennsylvania postman whistleblower story.

Another strange result is shown in this article, as counties that historically were good predictors of the final outcome - also in 2016 - this time spectacularly failed. Those results are concordant with the above-mentioned findings of Shanaev.

ezgif_7_9dab99e1043f.jpg

That list matches rather well with a list in the corresponding Wikipedia article from before the election; see also Wikipedia's discussion page on that topic.


Allegation: voting machine scams of fractional counting and ballot stuffing

A discussion on Metabunk discussed an amazing observation by the mathematician Edward Solomon: precincts would often have a certain ratio of votes, for example 33 for Trump on a total of 99 for a 1/3 ratio, and then when new votes came in, other precincts would get that same exact ratio instead of the earlier precincts!

Taking for granted that such a strange phenomenon must be due to manipulation by means of a computer algorithm, Solomon developed a very complicated vote fraud theory, as explained in a video, and with a follow-up video here. It's an implausible way of cheating, unnecessarily complicated with an unnecessary risk of discovery. The simpler strategy of fractional counting (which some voting machines even have built in!) should work at least as well.

One can download the data from the NYT website and verify that it is correct. But how unlikely is it? Challenged by critics, Solomon attempted a probability estimation here, which didn't impress the critics. If there were just dozens of precincts, then the intuitive perception that this is abnormal would be certainly correct. But in fact there are thousands of precincts; the higher the number of precincts, also the higher the likelihood that it's in fact quite normal.

Fractional voting

- fractional votes as brought up by Russ Ramsland in an affidavit based on the ASOG Forensics Report on Antrim, Michigan. He claimed that data directly coming from voting software showed fractional votes. If so, that would be a sure sign of fraud. However, when asked for precision, Ramsland stated: "I think that it may have come from the Michigan Secretary of State site".

On state level, the widely used Edison data set such as stored on the NYT website, only gives the total vote count and the fractions of the candidates. InfoCheckers found that the NYT data feed corresponds exactly to the so-called "raw data" file of Ramsland. Calculated from the there provided fractions one can exactly reproduce the suspect looking "fractional votes" for Biden and Trump. Moreover, we found an abc news feed that displayed vote totals that do not match the totals calculated from the NYT data fractions, as shown in the picture below.

Fractionalvotesdata.jpg

However, a Bloomberg discussion shows that there is a serious risk that voting machines can be hacked to falsify vote results, even with the help of fractional voting software already present on some of those machines. an old email provides an explanation how such software found its way in there.

The ASOG forensics report didn't just make faulty assertions about non-forensics. They found:

Significantly, the computer system shows vote adjudication logs for prior years; but all adjudication log entries for the 2020 election cycle are missing. The adjudication process is the simplest way to manually manipulate votes. The lack of recordsprevents any form of audit accountability, and their conspicuous absence is extremely suspicious since the files exist for previous years using the same software. Removal of these files violates state law and prevents a meaningful audit, even if the Secretary wanted to conduct an audit. We must conclude that the 2020 election cycle records have been manually removed. Likewise, all server security logs prior to 11:03 pm on November 4, 2020 are missing. This means that all security logs for the day after the election, on election day, and prior to election day are gone. Security logs are very important to an audit trail, forensics, and for detecting advanced persistent threats and outside attacks, especially on systems with outdated system files. These logs would contain domain controls, authentication failures, error codes, times users logged on and off, network connections to file servers between file accesses, internet connections, times, and data transfers. Other server logs before November 4, 2020 are present; therefore, there is no reasonable explanation for the security logs to be missing.

Garland Favorito -> https://georgiastarnews.com/2020/12/05/trump-legal-team-witness-alleged-that-ware-county-audit-results-revealed-dominion-machine-flipped-ballots-from-trump-to-biden/
Ware county, Georgia

The email about flipped votes: https://web.archive.org/web/ 20210112151915/https://voterga.files.wordpress.com/2020/11/ware-county-confirmation.jpg

https://www.johnfredericksradio.com/podcast/december-4-2020/
https://voterga.org/events/
https://georgiastarnews.com/2020/12/05/trump-legal-team-witness-alleged-that-ware-county-audit-results-revealed-dominion-machine-flipped-ballots-from-trump-to-biden/

It looks as if Dominion voting machines stole 300 votes each from Republicans and gave 100 votes to a Democrat. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/02/new-hampshire-update-dominion-owned-machines-removed-6-votes-windham-gop-candidate-machines-used-85-towns-video-report/


- https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/11/election_fraud_you_can_see.html

It has been shown that contrary to denials, many voting machines were in fact connected to the internet as late as early 2020.

this overview article has a bit worrying statement: "new equipment enabled them to remotely log in to the poll pads and fix problems"...

https://twitter.com/i/events/1329290237709676544 According to multiple fact checkers, "There is no connection between Smartmatic and Dominion Voting Systems" :

One can read here, expanding the text "About Sequoia", that Sequoia voting systems had been acquired by Smartmatic and later acquired by Dominion.


Allegation: Impossible vote spikes in multiple swing states

WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN SPIKES

Politifact: "The charts do show an uptick in Democratic votes in Wisconsin before 6 a.m., and a bump in Democratic votes in Michigan after 6 a.m." "But that’s because counties in those states released a large batch of results all at once, FiveThirtyEight told us.

https://votepatternanalysis.substack.com/p/voting-anomalies-2020

as well as its sequence https://votepatternanalysis.substack.com/p/anomalies-in-vote-counts-follow-up

Also useful: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/explained-trumps-claim-of-suspicious-early-morning-michigan-bump-its-detroit.11460/

the vote update described at the top of this report [concerning Michigan] is responsible for the extremely noticeable spike which nearly eliminated Trump’s lead in one shot. It arrived at 6:31am ET on November 4th, and went 141,258 for Biden to 5,968 for Trump — representing both the largest vote margin for Biden of any of the 502 updates we have here, at 135,290, while also representing, by a factor of more than 2, the largest Biden:Trump ratio, at a whopping 23.67:1 [...]. As we will see when comparing with other states, by our metric this is the single most anomalous point in the nation. [...]
This update is also particularly interesting for another reason: there are 2,546 non-two-party votes, while Donald Trump only has 5,968. In particular, to accept the results as seen in Michigan as legitimate, one would need to believe that the one or two most possible pro-Biden areas of the state were somehow each counted their ballots entirely in one or two vote updates. If they were counted incrementally and released in smaller batches, as is typically the case, we would expect to see smaller updates with higher variance in outcome, and would almost certainly see updates with a higher Biden:Trump ratio than the two Michigan updates discussed in this report.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-wi-pa-mi-vote-spikes-idUSKBN27Q307

http://archive.is/nQzbT

compare https://archive.is/t1lHn#selection-1189.58-1189.72 vs https://www.factcheck.org/2020/12/nine-election-fraud-claims-none-credible/


"Very disturbing" Georgia part 2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTVhYQAdktY&feature=emb_rel_end

- Garland Favorito, Elections Director, non-partisan (he voted Don Blankenship!) - illegal(?) voting machines, Fulton observer and tabulation observer abnormal 20'000 votes spike for Biden, records request no response! Boxes with 100% Biden ballots etc etc. State Farm Arena.
34:10 irregularities; secretary of state in past continually false info last couple of years.
35:50 "Fulton county REFUSED to show the ballots" "One woman confessed on social media" (but that is wrong info.! To do: search back the evidence that it was a fake account)

spike for Biden - the NYT corresponding .json file:

             "trumpd": 0.52,
             "bidenj": 0.467
           },
           "votes": 4463897,
           "eevp": 87,
           "eevp_source": "edison",
           "timestamp": "2020-11-04T06:32:50Z"
         },
         {
           "vote_shares": {
             "trumpd": 0.508,
             "bidenj": 0.48
           },
           "votes": 4626656,
           "eevp": 90,
           "eevp_source": "edison",
           "timestamp": "2020-11-04T06:34:49Z"  - which is local time 1:34 AM

T. 2,321,226 - B. 2,084,640 - J. 58,031 at 1:35 AM (difficult to see, reconstructed from numbers and %)
THAT'S AGAIN EXACTLY THE ROUNDED NUMBERS FROM THREE DIGIT % -> obviously BACK-CALCULATED
T. 2,350,341 - B. 2,220,795 - J. 55,520 (Jorgensen didn't loose votes, that is just the 0.1% rounding error)

https://citp.princeton.edu/our-work/voting/ analysis + demonstration of how easy to falsify vote results - without leaving a trace!

See also some curious statistical observations in the video from 3:30:30 https://coalregioncanary.com/2020/11/26/pennsylvania-election-mail-in-vote-spikes-expert-testifies-senate-hearing-gettysburg/:


Georgia Dec.30 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjbAFuoQOvo Coffee county
-> 12:00 No scanned recount numbers matched, around 50 wrong each time (however that is a small %).
-> 17:00 six counties were "forced to certify"!!
-> 18:00 People WITH GUNS incl. Dominion people, "secretary of state (Mr Sterlin) was not helpful"
-> 36:00 NO LOCAL DATA kept in recount, results were given by means of cloud-based web app
NOT A TRUE AUDIT DONE - but still possible


some interesting numbers and links:
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/12/10/fact-check-ludicrous-statistical-analysis-supporting-pro-trump-case/3877743001/

WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN SPIKES:

Politifact: "The charts do show an uptick in Democratic votes in Wisconsin before 6 a.m., and a bump in Democratic votes in Michigan after 6 a.m." "But that’s because counties in those states released a large batch of results all at once, FiveThirtyEight told us. "


SHREDDING VIDEOS http://thoughtcrimeradio.net/2020/11/georgia-woman-witnesses-shredding-company-at-election-office-photographs-trashcan-full-of-absentee-ballots/ "If you download the photo in the last tweet and magnify it, you can clearly see the words “absentee ballot” in one of the piles." yes BUT maybe it says "BALLOT APPLICATION ENCLOSED" or "BALLOT MUST BE ENCLOSED". However: "AL ABSENTEE BALLOT" ..

-> EnSXGTwXUAEZ6wZ.jpg

"AL Absentee ballot" -> ENVELOPE https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/absentee-ballot-envelopes/85-b581fce4-5f91-4ab7-8930-68a09917fbff https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/absentee-ballot-envelopes/85-b581fce4-5f91-4ab7-8930-68a09917fbff

https://leadstories.com/hoax-alert/2020/11/fact-check-video-does-not-show-shredders-destroying-ballots-in-cobb-county-georgia.html

Georgia Part 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=3RV57sFsojA&feature=emb_rel_end
51:30 Susan Knox film single persons recounted without oversight?
56:20 evidently fraud as final tallies are now hidden for observers!
1:01:00 No observers to monitor the final numbers that were tallied into the computer!!!
1:02:30 all ballots are being shredded!! - on FRIDAY 20 November.

(compare: possibly fraudulent ballots were used according to Favorito https://web.archive.org/web/20201204110442/https://voterga.files.wordpress.com/2020/12/ga-state-senate-testimony.pdf )

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-cobb-county-shredding-evide/fact-check-videos-of-shredding-truck-do-not-show-destruction-of-voter-fraud-evidence-at-cobb-county-ga-idUSKBN2862BA
On Nov.26, unnamed "Reuters Staff" established as fact that a claim by the Cobb County Communications Director was true, on the simplistic argument of "officials said". Important detail: those pictures were supposedly taken on TUESDAY morning 24 November. Reuters muddied the waters by discussing the events of 24 November without mentioning the incriminating ones of 20 November.

Follow-up check to see that it's really Susan Knox swearing to this and not a clever hoax, search:

Lin Wood Susan Knox affidavit

Results:

https://tennesseestar.com/2020/11/22/cobb-county-board-of-elections-denies-shredding-ballots-after-lin-wood-tweets-videos-of-document-shredding/ Cobb County Board of Elections and Registration issued a statement on November 20, that, amazingly, does NOT match the statements given to Reuters:
https://www.cobbcounty.org/elections/news/document-shredding-jim-r-miller-park
(but note also the different day).

OFFICIAL ABSENTEE BALLOT.png

Enhancement of absentee ballot envelope for shredding: it appears to have a torn edge, consistent with a used envelope as filmed.

-> Note also the confusion between 736 Whitlock Ave and the Jim R Miller-park! Election officials admitted that materials from Miller park were shredded, but next denied that any such materials were shredded on the 24th because the videos were taken on Whitlock Avenue and the ballots were kept at Miller park. In fact, the videos of the 20th were taken at Miller Park, and those of the 24th at Whitlock Av.



https://www.rt.com/usa/508398-dominion-fraud-fbi-michigan/

https://www.deepcapture.com/2020/11/election-2020-was-rigged-the-evidence/

https://web.archive.org/web/20201210042038/https://twitter.com/kanekoathegreat/status/1336888454538428418 Dominion + video's:

https://web.archive.org/web/20201210101746if_/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ijjwS6h-PyU&gl=US&hl=en Dominion Voting
Machine Flaws -- 2020 Election Coffee County, Georgia Video 2 - YouTube.html FULL EXPLANATION OF HOW TO RE-SCAN BALLOTS WITH DEMO

https://web.archive.org/web/20201210042132if_/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46CAKyyObls