Difference between revisions of "Check: Effects of CO2 emissions on nature"

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(man-made -> CO2 (more precise, some "man-made" is for example land sinking due to water extraction!)
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'''Reality check of predictions''':
 
'''Reality check of predictions''':
It's enlightening to compare published predictions with the reality. For example in 2014 the Dutch KNMI [https://www.milieuzaken.org/bewaarde%20artikelen/KNMI-WR2014-01.pdf gave their outlook (their report p.57)] based on IPCC predictions of local sea rise for two different emission scenarios, a high ("business as usual") and a low (strong CO2 reduction) scenario. Hereunder we compare their local sea rise projection for the high CO<sub>2</sub> scenario, as actual emissions in recent years were close to that scenario [reference to add].
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It's enlightening to compare published predictions with the reality. For example in 2014 the Dutch KNMI [https://www.milieuzaken.org/bewaarde%20artikelen/KNMI-WR2014-01.pdf gave their outlook (their report p.57)] based on IPCC predictions of local sea rise for two different emission scenarios, a high ("business as usual") and a low (strong CO2 reduction) scenario. Hereunder we compare their local sea rise projection for the high CO<sub>2</sub> scenario, as actual emissions in recent years were around that scenario (see for example [https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00177-3 this] figure in the journal Nature).
  
 
[[File:KNMI-wrong.png|500px|thumb|center|''Updated sea level observations. Average of 6 tide gauge stations along the Dutch coast for the period 1901 – 2018, compared with expected sea rise after 2000 based on CO2 models.'']]
 
[[File:KNMI-wrong.png|500px|thumb|center|''Updated sea level observations. Average of 6 tide gauge stations along the Dutch coast for the period 1901 – 2018, compared with expected sea rise after 2000 based on CO2 models.'']]

Revision as of 17:09, 10 February 2020

According to popular greenhouse radiation theory, the increased emission of greenhouse gasses, in particular carbon dioxide (CO2) causes global warming as well as other environmental effects such as reducing the pH ("acidification") of the oceans. Estimations of the warming effect of doubling the atmospheric CO2 concentration vary from ca. 0.5 to 5 °C. A popular so-called consensus estimation is ca. 3 °C. [ref. to add]

We will split up the different aspects and assemble the combined evidence on this page. If the conclusions of sub topics are modified, this page will be adapted as needed.

Fact Check: CO2 emissions fingerprint on atmospheric CO2

Outcome: There is a reasonably good match; the current CO2 level increase is almost certainly driven by man-made CO2 emissions.

Fact Check: CO2 emissions fingerprint on sea rise

Outcome: The average sea rise during the last 150 years does not match atmospheric CO2 increase. It's unclear how much of recently increased sea rise is due to natural causes, and how much is due to CO2 emissions.

Reality check of predictions: It's enlightening to compare published predictions with the reality. For example in 2014 the Dutch KNMI gave their outlook (their report p.57) based on IPCC predictions of local sea rise for two different emission scenarios, a high ("business as usual") and a low (strong CO2 reduction) scenario. Hereunder we compare their local sea rise projection for the high CO2 scenario, as actual emissions in recent years were around that scenario (see for example this figure in the journal Nature).

Updated sea level observations. Average of 6 tide gauge stations along the Dutch coast for the period 1901 – 2018, compared with expected sea rise after 2000 based on CO2 models.

It's now obvious that the foreseen increase of sea rise was hugely overestimated. The recent trend line of measurements is still not or hardly bent upwards.


[work in progress!]


Possible further aspects to check (you - yes you! - can help):

- Solar activity fingerprint on land and sea temperatures as well as on sea rise

- CO2 emission fingerprint on land and sea temperatures + atmospheric hotspot

- CO2 emissions fingerprint on up going and down going infrared radiation

- testing theories on ice ages and Eocene thermal maximum

- testing competing climate theories on different planets

- CO2 effects on corals ("acidification")

- CO2 effects on plant growth ("greening"


uploaded files: File:KNMI 6 tide gauge stations.ods