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| blog:excess_deaths_and_the_elephant_in_the_room_-_part_2 [2026/04/19 19:59] – correct "boosters" to "vaccinations" admin | blog:excess_deaths_and_the_elephant_in_the_room_-_part_2 [2026/04/19 20:07] (current) – admin |
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| //Weekly deaths in Switzerland (source: [[https://web.archive.org/web/20231129013142/https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/en/home/statistics/health/state-health/mortality-causes-death.html|bfs.admin.ch]])// | //Weekly deaths in Switzerland (source: [[https://web.archive.org/web/20231129013142/https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/en/home/statistics/health/state-health/mortality-causes-death.html|bfs.admin.ch]])// |
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| {{https://web.archive.org/web/20231129013142im_/https://infocheckers.org/images/thumb/2/2e/CH-2021-deaths.png/600px-CH-2021-deaths.png}}\\ | {{https://web.archive.org/web/20231129013142im_/https://infocheckers.org/images/thumb/2/2e/CH-2021-deaths.png/600px-CH-2021-deaths.png}}\\ |
| //Weekly deaths in Switzerland in 2021 (incl.first month of 2022)// | //Weekly deaths in Switzerland in 2021 (incl.first month of 2022)// |
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| {{https://web.archive.org/web/20231129013142im_/https://infocheckers.org/images/thumb/a/a5/CH-2021-deathsWithCovid.png/550px-CH-2021-deathsWithCovid.png}}\\ | {{https://web.archive.org/web/20231129013142im_/https://infocheckers.org/images/thumb/a/a5/CH-2021-deathsWithCovid.png/550px-CH-2021-deathsWithCovid.png}}\\ |
| //Weekly deaths with Covid-19 in Switzerland in 2021// | //Weekly deaths with Covid-19 in Switzerland in 2021// |
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| By subtracting the Weekly Covid deaths from the Weekly deaths we obtain: | By subtracting the Weekly Covid deaths from the Weekly deaths we obtain: \\ |
| {{https://web.archive.org/web/20231129013142im_/https://infocheckers.org/images/thumb/9/97/CH-2021-deaths-not-C19.png/600px-CH-2021-deaths-not-C19.png}}\\ | {{https://web.archive.org/web/20231129013142im_/https://infocheckers.org/images/thumb/9/97/CH-2021-deaths-not-C19.png/600px-CH-2021-deaths-not-C19.png}}\\ |
| //Weekly deaths in Switzerland in 2021 that were not associated with Covid-19// | //Weekly deaths in Switzerland in 2021 that were not associated with Covid-19// |
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| \\ | Comparing with the weekly vaccinations: \\ |
| Comparing with the weekly vaccinations: | |
| {{https://web.archive.org/web/20231129013142im_/https://infocheckers.org/images/thumb/2/24/CH-Vaccine-boosts.png/550px-CH-Vaccine-boosts.png}}\\ | {{https://web.archive.org/web/20231129013142im_/https://infocheckers.org/images/thumb/2/24/CH-Vaccine-boosts.png/550px-CH-Vaccine-boosts.png}}\\ |
| //Weekly Covid-19 boost vaccine doses in Switzerland in 2021 and Jan.2022// | //Weekly Covid-19 boost vaccine doses in Switzerland in 2021 and Jan.2022// |
| In view of the large differences between those age groups, based on the above numbers the simulation was refined for a little more precision (partly making use of finer age group data and partly assuming that older people tend to get vaccinated earlier - see spreadsheet "Refined analysis" in the ODS file). | In view of the large differences between those age groups, based on the above numbers the simulation was refined for a little more precision (partly making use of finer age group data and partly assuming that older people tend to get vaccinated earlier - see spreadsheet "Refined analysis" in the ODS file). |
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| Taking again the plot of non-Covid-19 weekly deaths, | Taking again the plot of non-Covid-19 weekly deaths, \\ |
| {{https://web.archive.org/web/20231129013142im_/https://infocheckers.org/images/thumb/9/97/CH-2021-deaths-not-C19.png/600px-CH-2021-deaths-not-C19.png}}\\ | {{https://web.archive.org/web/20231129013142im_/https://infocheckers.org/images/thumb/9/97/CH-2021-deaths-not-C19.png/600px-CH-2021-deaths-not-C19.png}}\\ |
| //Weekly deaths in Switzerland in 2021 that were not associated with Covid-19// | //Weekly deaths in Switzerland in 2021 that were not associated with Covid-19// |
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| Then by subtracting the simulated vaccination deaths, \\ | Then by subtracting the simulated vaccination deaths, \\ |
| {{https://web.archive.org/web/20231129013142im_/https://infocheckers.org/images/thumb/6/60/CH-2021-vaccinedeath-sim.png/550px-CH-2021-vaccinedeath-sim.png}} \\ | {{https://web.archive.org/web/20231129013142im_/https://infocheckers.org/images/thumb/6/60/CH-2021-vaccinedeath-sim.png/550px-CH-2021-vaccinedeath-sim.png}} \\ |
| //Simulated weekly Covid.19 vaccine deaths, based on assumptions in table 1, refined// | //Simulated weekly Covid.19 vaccine deaths, based on assumptions in table 1, refined// |
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| we obtain death rates in the normal range (except for the "reaping effect"): \\ | we obtain death rates in the normal range (except for the "reaping effect"): \\ |
| {{https://web.archive.org/web/20231129013142im_/https://infocheckers.org/images/9/99/CH-2021-deaths-not-C19-not-vaccine.png}}\\ | {{https://web.archive.org/web/20231129013142im_/https://infocheckers.org/images/9/99/CH-2021-deaths-not-C19-not-vaccine.png}}\\ |
| //Simulation of deaths in Switzerland in 2021 without deaths due to Covid-19 and vaccines// | //Simulation of deaths in Switzerland in 2021 without deaths due to Covid-19 and vaccines// |
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| {{https://web.archive.org/web/20231129013142im_/https://infocheckers.org/images/thumb/a/a1/CH-2021-deaths-not-C19plus20percent-NoVax.png/650px-CH-2021-deaths-not-C19plus20percent-NoVax.png}}\\ | {{https://web.archive.org/web/20231129013142im_/https://infocheckers.org/images/thumb/a/a1/CH-2021-deaths-not-C19plus20percent-NoVax.png/650px-CH-2021-deaths-not-C19plus20percent-NoVax.png}}\\ |
| //Simulation of weekly deaths in Switzerland in 2021 without deaths due to Covid-19 and vaccines, accounting for 20% more deaths from Covid-19// | //Simulation of weekly deaths in Switzerland in 2021 without deaths due to Covid-19 and vaccines, accounting for 20% more deaths from Covid-19// |
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| PS. As the "boosters" were very concentrated in time, it's not very satisfying to simulate with vaccine deaths in the same week as boosters; medically more plausible is the same and the following week. So I still did a variant simulation with half the deaths in the same week and half in the following week. The result is even slightly better: \\ | PS. As the "boosters" were very concentrated in time, it's not very satisfying to simulate with vaccine deaths in the same week as boosters; medically more plausible is the same and the following week. So I still did a variant simulation with half the deaths in the same week and half in the following week. The result is even slightly better: \\ |
| {{https://web.archive.org/web/20231129013142im_/https://infocheckers.org/images/thumb/2/29/Boost-simulation_refined.png/650px-Boost-simulation_refined.png}} | |
| | {{https://web.archive.org/web/20231129013142im_/https://infocheckers.org/images/thumb/2/29/Boost-simulation_refined.png/650px-Boost-simulation_refined.png}} \\ |
| //Simulation of weekly deaths in Switzerland in 2021 without deaths due to Covid-19 and vaccines, refined// | //Simulation of weekly deaths in Switzerland in 2021 without deaths due to Covid-19 and vaccines, refined// |
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